Summer 2020 – Fall 2021: period of oversupply of money.

After the summer of 2020, when corona restrictions were eased and central bank stimulus measures increased the money supply, the real estate market experienced a significant increase in activity. Loan turnover doubled and the number of real estate listings decreased by almost 1.7 times. This period was characterized by strong buyer demand and a supply deficit, which led to an increase in prices.

 

2022: transition to a buyer's market.

In the first half of the year, large loan turnovers supported continued price increases. However, the market dynamics changed significantly by the summer – buyers became more cautious and the number of offers increased. The European Central Bank raised interest rates, which cooled the market. By the end of the year, demand had fallen significantly, offers piled up and the number of transactions decreased.

 

2024: Buyer's market recovery.

The beginning of the year marked the peak of the Euribor, which strongly affected entrepreneurs, consumers and property buyers. As the loan market was in a slump, banks began to ease loan conditions in the course of competition. Starting in the spring, the base interest rate began to fall and lending activity increased. By the beginning of autumn, this led to market activation and a decrease in the volume of offers.

Forecast for the first half of 2025: the market is starting to recover.

Assuming that the general economic and political environment remains stable, the real estate market will be activated due to falling interest rates and increasing loan supply. The analysis shows that prices usually start to increase approximately six months after the change in the supply trend. Therefore, it can be assumed that a new wave of real estate prices can be expected from the spring or early summer of this year.

 

We recommend that market participants keep a close eye on real estate trends and consider their next steps now.